[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111958 
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-112200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1619
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE/WRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111958Z - 112200Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE AND
SHOULD POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
THREAT.

HIGH BASED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
ESEWD DOWN INSTABILITY AXIS OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. MEDICINE BOW
PROFILER INDICATES THAT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 30
KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN
AROUND 35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING UPDRAFT ROTATION AND
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. HIGH BASED
NATURE OF CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. CONVECTION MAY ORGANIZE INTO A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THIS
EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.

..CROSBIE.. 07/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

41000286 41320363 42610389 43030336 42990148 42720093
41310139 

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