[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111843 
SDZ000-NEZ000-112045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1616
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111843Z - 112045Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BLACK HILLS WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR. STRENGTH OF UPSLOPE/DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
SUGGESTS THAT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EWD
MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW INITIALLY DUE TO HIGHER CINH
EAST OF THE HILLS. THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE 21Z.


LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS INCIPIENT CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
THE BLACK HILLS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500
J/KG ALONG WITH 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STRONG
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. MODIFIED
12Z RAP SOUNDING FOR 18Z CONDITIONS INDICATES BETWEEN 100-200 J/KG
OF MLCINH OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE HILLS...AND THUS EWD
MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION/SEVERE THREAT AWAY FROM THE HILLS IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE SLOW EVEN WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS. SEVERAL MORE
HOURS OF HEATING WOULD BE NEEDED WITH LOWER ELEVATION TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER-MID 90S TO SUPPORT EWD ADVANCEMENT OF CONVECTION.
ADDITIONAL HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVER ERN WY MAY INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES INTO WRN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CINH WILL BE WEAKER.

..CROSBIE.. 07/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...

43190380 44140395 44730365 45230322 45350221 45210170
44300113 42990108 

WWWW