[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111904 
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-112100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1617
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SRN IA...NRN MO AND NRN/CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 602...603...

VALID 111904Z - 112100Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ACROSS EXTREME ERN IA OR NWRN IL
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER SRN IA
THROUGH NRN MO. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A SEWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN
WI SWWD THROUGH ERN IA THEN WWD THROUGH SRN IA. STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED ALONG THE NRN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN IA HAVE
WEAKENED AS THEY ENCOUNTERED A BOUNDARY LAYER THAT HAS BEEN
STABILIZED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ON THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH NRN IL WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.

THE SWRN PART OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH SRN IA HAS
BEEN MORE ACTIVE. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 20 TO 25 KT FROM THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR OVER SWRN IA HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY. 

AN MCV IS ALSO MOVING EWD THROUGH SERN NEB AND MID LEVEL ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INTENSIFY IN THIS AREA DUE TO
PRESENCE OF CAP. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR SUGGEST STORMS ARE FINALLY
STARTING TO INCREASE IN INTENSIFY AND TAP IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S... RESULTING IN A
WEAKER CAP.

..DIAL.. 07/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

40099575 40759695 41919675 41909487 40659402 

WWWW