[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111748 
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-111945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1615
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MT AND WRN ND/FAR NWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111748Z - 111945Z

ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF NCENTRAL/ERN MT IS LIKELY TO
BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND BEGIN POSING A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AS IT MOVES INTO FAR NWRN SD/WRN ND IN THE
NEXT 2-3 HOURS. A WW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE NEEDED BY 19Z.

LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MT EVIDENT ON WV
IMAGERY AND RECENT PASSAGE IN THE BILLINGS VWP DATA. ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY AS LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS BENEATH MID LEVEL CAA AS EVIDENT BY 17Z GGW SOUNDING.
MODIFICATION OF THIS SOUNDING FOR CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER OVER ERN MT/WRN ND AND FAR NWRN SD
INDICATES STILL AROUND 50-100 J/KG OF MLCINH. WITH A FEW MORE HOURS
OF HEATING...SFC TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH DEWPTS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION TO
BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND BEGIN TO POSE A SEVERE 
THREAT. STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
CONVECTION SHOULD START OUT AS SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE.

FARTHER WEST OVER SCENTRAL/SWRN MT...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN MAINTAINING WLY WINDS LIMITING UPSLOPE
FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AS COLD FRONT MOVES SWD INTO SWRN/SCENTRAL MT AND UPSLOPE
INCREASES IN THIS AREA CONVECTION WILL THEN BECOME LIKELY. DESPITE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG WIND PROFILES... INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 500-700 J/KG WOULD LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

..CROSBIE.. 07/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

44940399 45310528 46020588 47500674 47950873 48660922
48940865 49000053 48040051 46210060 44980209 

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