[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111514
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111514 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-111645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...NE MO THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE 

VALID 111514Z - 111645Z

PORTIONS OF ERN IA...NW MO AND NRN THROUGH CNTRL IL WILL BE UPGRADED
TO SLIGHT RISK ON THE 1630Z UPDATE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AS THEY DEVELOP ESE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

EARLY THIS MORNING TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. THE MOST ORGANIZED WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV OVER
WRN WI WITH A TRAILING LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH NRN IA.
ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS WAS OVER SRN IA. THE MCV WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO
THE LESS UNSTABLE REGIME ACROSS WI WHICH WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS ON NRN PART OF LINE TO INTENSIFY. THE STORMS ON THE SWRN PART
OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS NRN IA HAD BEEN BACKBUILDING ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL JET...AND RECENT RADAR DATA SUGGEST THESE STORMS ARE NOW
BEGINNING TO FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION S OF THIS FEATURE AND MEAN CLOUD LAYER FLOW
LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE STORMS...IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT THESE STORMS CAN MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY
AND REMAIN ORGANIZED AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD.

STORMS OVER SRN IA MAY ALSO INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE DES
MOINES VWP SHOW 20-30 KT WLY CLOUD LAYER FLOW WHICH IS ORIENTED MORE
FAVORABLY WITH RESPECT TO THE N-S LINE OF STORMS OVER SE IA TO
PROMOTE EWD PROPAGATION TOWARD THE DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
NRN/CNTRL IL.

..DIAL.. 07/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

40388827 40059211 41329198 42269121 41938774 

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