[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 110057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110056 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-110230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL AND ERN MT...FAR WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 597...600...

VALID 110056Z - 110230Z

SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE
OVER WW 597 AND THUS WW 597 IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT /02Z/. CONVECTION OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW 597 WILL MOVE INTO WW
600 AND IS ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY. 

MUCH OF WW 597 HAS BEEN STABILIZED FROM OUTFLOW OF CONVECTIVE LINE
AS IT MOVED EWD ACROSS SWRN/WCENTRAL MT. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE
OVER WW 597 THE NEXT 2 HOURS WILL BE INTO TWO AREAS. ONE WITH THE
CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES TOWARDS WW 600 AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER
GREATER INSTABILITY. THE OTHER OVER NWRN PORTIONS OF WW 597...NWRN
MT WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE
WEST SIDE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONFINED ENOUGH THAT A REPLACEMENT
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FARTHER EAST...SEVERE CONVECTION PRESENTLY IN WW 600 WILL CONTINUE
TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AS IT MOVES FROM ERN MT INTO WRN ND
WHILE MOVING DOWN INSTABILITY AXIS.

..CROSBIE.. 07/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

46670968 47271126 46471363 47451364 48471279 49021055
47980522 47720260 45460303 45350660 

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