[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 110152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110151 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-110245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1607
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0851 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/W CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 598...

VALID 110151Z - 110245Z

NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED BEFORE 03Z.

SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS EVOLVED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WEST OF FARGO...WHERE HEATED VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF WEAK
SURFACE WIND SHIFT REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE
UP TO 4000 J/KG.  THIS IS SUPPORTING A FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS AND
POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN/LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS
STILL POSSIBLE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.  OTHERWISE...SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FARGO AREA IS EXPECTED
BY 04Z...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD POOL/GUST FRONT STILL
POSSIBLE.  

ACTIVITY MAY BE SLOW TO WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS EAST OF FARGO INTO WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME
PROGRESSIVELY LESS STEEP ACROSS MINNESOTA.  GIVEN WEAK FLOW
REGIME...SEVERE THREAT LIKELY WILL DIMINISH BEFORE 06Z.

..KERR.. 07/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

46559868 47219790 47669704 47379571 46639510 45729575
45699733 45719860 

WWWW