[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 102238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102237 
MTZ000-110030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1604
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 597...

VALID 102237Z - 110030Z

CONTINUE WW.  NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED TO THE NORTH/EAST OF CURRENT WW
BY 11/00Z.

FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED PAST FEW
HOURS IN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME/STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA INTO WEST CENTRAL MONTANA.
 THIS IS AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST INTO THE NORTHERN U.S./CANADIAN ROCKIES...
AND STRONGER FORCING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NEAR/NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LEWISTOWN AREA BY 11/00-02Z.  AS THIS OCCURS...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN
TO ENCOUNTER MORE MOIST AND FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW /BENEATH MODERATE
MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES/...AND POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.  STRONGER
ACTIVITY COULD APPROACH THE JORDAN AREA BY 11/03Z.

..KERR.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

47871179 48881072 48580745 47240628 46520743 46330907
46541119 

WWWW