[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 102211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102210 
SDZ000-NEZ000-110015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1603
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596...

VALID 102210Z - 110015Z

CONTINUE WW 596...SEVERE THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE EAST OF WW
596 BY THE 11/00-02Z TIME FRAME.

EVOLUTION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS UNDERWAY...AND APPEARS
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING NEAR WEAK MID-LEVEL JET STREAK/SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND MIGRATING
OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON.  ONLY SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF UPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED BY MODELS THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS...AND CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
THROUGH 11/00Z IN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE
OF 1500 TO 3000 J/KG.  

THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNBURSTS NEAR
STRONGER CELLS...WITH EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD
POOL AND BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT LIKELY AFTER 11/00Z. 
UNTIL THIS OCCURS...EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO
ADVANCE EAST OF PIERRE AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.

..KERR.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

45160067 45859970 45579818 45019723 43949771 43279856
42970043 43340138 44110067 

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