[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 102206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102205 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-102330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1602
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0505 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...FAR NWRN MO AND SWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 102205Z - 102330Z

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OVER SERN NEB TO THE
SOUTH OF OMA AREA. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE LIMITED AREA OF A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A NEED
FOR A WW.

LATEST SFC AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES NARROW AXIS OF
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN MCV OVER ERN NEB WHERE MLCAPES FROM
2500-3000 J/KG EXISTED. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS OVER FAR SERN NEB INDICATE AROUND 25 J/KG OF REMAINING
MLCINH. MODERATE /25 TO 30 KTS/ MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE SERN PERIPHERY
OF THE MCV AS SAMPLED RECENTLY BY THE FAIRBURY PROFILER AND HASTINGS
VWP ABOVE SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT AROUND 30 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. THUS SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE IF
CONVECTION CAN OVERCOME REMAINING CINH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND NARROWNESS OF INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD
PRECLUDE A LONGER LIVED SEVERE THREAT.

..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

39939523 40189631 40549632 41309600 41319502 40989444
39789427 

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