[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 101934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101934 
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-102100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1595
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101934Z - 102100Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL
POSSIBLE. MONITORING AREA FOR POSSIBLE WW.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HOUR ACROSS WRN MT IN AREA
OF INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW. DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO 600 MB AND UNDIRECTIONAL
SWLY FLOW...WITH ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT...WOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION. THIS STRONGER SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL. IF IT APPEARS THAT
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WW WOULD LIKELY BE
WARRANTED.

..IMY.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...MSO...

46100941 45010999 44661357 45891465 48741379 49171217
48820905 

WWWW