[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 102007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102007 
MNZ000-NDZ000-102200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NW MN THROUGH NERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 102007Z - 102200Z

PORTIONS OF NERN ND THROUGH NW MN ARE BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF IT BECOME EVIDENT THAT ADDITIONAL
SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN INITIATE IN THIS AREA...A WW MAY BE NEEDED.


THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM SW
ONTARIO SWWD INTO EXTREME NW MN. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE
DEVELOPED WHERE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION MERGED
WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SW ONTARIO SWWD THROUGH NRN ND. THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS
PARTS OF NW MN THROUGH NERN ND. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND WEAKER
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MN/ND PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY RAISES
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW CAP WEAKENING IN VICINITY OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND ASCENT ACCOMPANYING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
SPREADING EAST. SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH ANY SURFACE
BASED STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

..DIAL.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...

48989508 48629476 47909656 47739842 48469883 48729768
48959636 

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