[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 101921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101920 
FLZ000-102115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1594
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTH FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101920Z - 102115Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
AS CONVECTIVE LINE/S MOVE WWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FL DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AND THUS A WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED ALONG EAST COAST SEE BREEZE FRONT OVER THE
LAST HOUR OVER SOUTH FL...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
INTO CENTRAL FL. STRENGTHENING NELY UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED ON WV
SAT IMAGERY DOWNWIND OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL
AID IN ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL STORM VENTING. ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM
2000-2500 J/KG...CONVECTIVE LINE IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED IF NOT
STRENGTHEN SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING
MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL. ALONG WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND THREATS WITH THE LINE/S AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTH FL.

..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

25638121 26298189 26858213 27258217 27908135 27958053
27098018 25538017