[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 101722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101721 
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-101915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1590
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...MUCH OF WV AND WRN/SRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 101721Z - 101915Z

CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NERN WV/FAR WRN VA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD AT AROUND 20 KTS. AS NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS
WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS LINE AND IT/S OUTFLOW...THERE MAY BE A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF WRN VA WITHIN THE NEXT
2 HOURS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT
A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT...CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO TRAIN ALONG NW-SE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM WCENTRAL VA INTO SCENTRAL VA.

AS A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVE SEWD ACROSS FAR NERN WV/WRN VA OVER THE
NEXT 2 HOURS...NUMEROUS MERGERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE COLD
POOL THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITH THIS CLUSTER OVER NERN WV. AIRMASS
DOWNSTREAM OVER WRN/SRN VA WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH MUCAPES
INCREASING TO AROUND 2500 J/KG. SUBTLE MID LEVEL WIND MAX OF 30 KTS
OBSERVED BY RECENT JACKSON VWP DATA MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR A
FORWARD PROPAGATING WEAKLY ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER SW...OTHER STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER ERN KY INTO SRN WV/FAR SWRN VA AND MAY
POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL...GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WIND MAX AND INSTABILITY. WITH VERY HIGH PW
VALUES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO 2 IN/HR WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING/TRAINING IN THE WAA
ZONE ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WCENTRAL INTO SCENTRAL
VA AND ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE COLD POOL OVER CENTRAL WV.

..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...

36588008 37048224 37598311 38418315 38718272 38998174
38848000 37967882 37257835 36847805 36707828 

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