[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 101702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101702 
SDZ000-101900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101702Z - 101900Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP EAST
THROUGH WRN AND TOWARD CNTRL SD. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL EXIST AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EAST TOWARD CNTRL/ERN SD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PARTS OF WRN AND W CNTRL SD ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR. 

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
WRN SD SWWD THROUGH SE WY. THIS CLOUD FIELD IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CLEAR SKIES PERSIST DOWNSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL SD
AND THIS WILL PROMOTE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. A QUASISTATIONARY
BOUNDARY EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL SD FROM JUST W OF MOBRIDGE SEWD TO W OF
YANKTON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER W OF THIS BOUNDARY IS DRIER AND
DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON
GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE
HEATING. STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT
ACROSS WRN SD SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EAST AND THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAY ALSO EXIST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS CROSS THE
BOUNDARY IN ERN SD WHERE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS...STRONGER INSTABILITY
AND BETTER LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT.

..DIAL.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

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