[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 101809
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101809 
NCZ000-SCZ000-101945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1591
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NC AND ERN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101809Z - 101945Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION AS IT
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER ERN SC/SERN NC. OVERALL MARGINAL THREAT
AND LACK OF BETTER ORGANIZATION SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A
WATCH.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ALONG E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY
OVER SERN NC AND ALONG A N-S BOUNDARY OVER ERN SC. MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES FROMM 2000-2500 J/KG EXISTS AHEAD OF
THESE BOUNDARIES WHERE INCIPIENT STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LAST
HOUR. WEAK NWLY FLOW SHOULD CARRY MOST OF THE CONVECTION SEWD
TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENTLY DRY AIR ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 DEG
C FROM THE SFC-2 KM MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. AS CONVECTION MERGES WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS MAY AID IN RAPID UPDRAFT STRENGTHENING AND A BRIEF
INCREASE IN THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY UNORGANIZED AND PULSE-TYPE IN NATURE THAT A WATCH IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

32748007 33338112 33828104 34528032 35257949 35217791
35007612 33627867 

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