[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 101357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101356 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-101530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1588
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0856 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN ND THROUGH W CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101356Z - 101530Z

THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS FROM SE
ND INTO W CNTRL MN. SEVERE THREAT IS TOO ISOLATED FOR A WW AT THIS
TIME. UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

EARLY THIS MORNING STORMS WERE DEVELOPING FROM SERN ND INTO W CNTRL
MN. STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...AND AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE 12Z ABERDEEN RAOB SHOWED
1800 J/KG OF MUCAPE ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...SUGGESTING
STORMS ARE ELEVATED. GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OBSERVED ON THE MORNING
VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS MN AND SERN ND...SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH CLOUD LAYER SHEAR
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...ELEVATED NATURE OF
THE STORMS SUGGESTS HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM
THREAT.

..DIAL.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...

44989611 46059700 47479728 47669547 45489524 

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