[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 100029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100029 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-100230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1587
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND / NWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 100029Z - 100230Z

STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS W CENTRAL ND...AND MAY DEVELOP ACROSS /
SPREAD NEWD INTO NWRN SD IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS.  DEGREE OF SHEAR
/ INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR
POSSIBLE WW.

SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION FORECAST ACROSS
NWRN SD AND WRN ND NORTH OF WARM FRONT NOW ACROSS W CENTRAL SD. 
PERSISTENT BAND OF CUMULUS MOVING ACROSS FAR ERN MT / WRN ND HAS
INCREASED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NOW
INDICATED BY RADAR / LIGHTNING DATA.  STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP / INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION...AND MAY ALSO MOVE INTO OR
DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN SD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES GIVEN MOIST / MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER
THIS AREA.

INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH 25 TO 35 KT WLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS...BUT OVERALL THREAT MAY
REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN LARGE-SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

48720185 47600089 46840098 45340057 44160057 44480334
45140407 46470406 47220364 

WWWW