[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 100017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100016 
INZ000-ILZ000-100245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1586
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL IL ESEWD INTO CENTRAL IND

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 100016Z - 100245Z

HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE PEORIA ESEWD TO NEAR TERRA HAUTE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER WCENTRAL/CENTRAL IL THROUGH 03Z.

MID LEVEL VORT CENTER OVER ERN IA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD AND
AID IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT OVER WCENTRAL/CENTRAL IL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY SOUTH OF SLOWLY MOVING OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NERN IL HAS COLLIDED RECENTLY
FROM OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL IND AIDING IN STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE NW OF THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA. SLOW
STORM MOTIONS AND WEAK WAA ABOVE REMNANT COLD POOL SHOULD AID IN A
FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM NEAR LAF ESEWD
TO NEAR MIE. ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS SHOULD OCCUR
OVER FAR WCENTRAL IND/ECENTRAL IL IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND MAY AID
IN BRIEF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREATS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SLOW
STORM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY OVER ECENTRAL IL/WCENTRAL IND
SHOULD AID IN CELL TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

39809029 39979059 40669070 40919068 41258965 41148887
40578706 40348590 39318629 39258788 

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