[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 092127
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092126 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-092300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1584
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0426 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN IA...WCENTRAL AND NWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 092126Z - 092300Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER FAR SERN IA ARE LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE ESEWD INTO NWRN/WCENTRAL IL. THIS AREA IS
BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING TRENDS AND POSSIBLE WW.

LIFT FROM MID LEVEL VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL IA HAS AIDED IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER SERN IA IN THE LAST HOUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT INHIBITION WAS WEAK OVER NWRN/WCENTRAL IL ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM MERCER CO SEWD INTO MCCLEAN COUNTY.
AS THE ELEVATED CONVECTION BECOMES ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
MLCAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG IT IS ANTICIPATED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY.
MODERATE 30 KT MID LEVEL ABOVE BACKED LOW LEVEL SELY WINDS WILL AID
IN SUFFICIENT ROTATION FOR THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. RELATIVELY
HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS FROM 12-13 KFT WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL. ADDITIONALLY..A WEAK TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL / 0-1 KM SHEAR FROM 10-15 KTS / WITH ANY STORMS
THAT MOVE ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY

..CROSBIE.. 07/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

40229124 40259167 41559123 41068878 40368896 39828910 

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