[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 092350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092349 
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-100145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1585
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO / SERN MT / WRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 092349Z - 100145Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF E CENTRAL AND NERN CO...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE MOVING EWD
OUT OF SERN WY INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. DAMAGING WIND / HAIL THREAT
MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...POSSIBLY
REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.

LATEST DATA INDICATES AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS THIS
REGION...ALONG WRN FRINGES OF AXIS OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER
CAPE.  LARGE-SCALE SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT EXISTS ACROSS THIS
REGION WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE. 
HOWEVER...LATEST PLT /PLATTEVILLE CO/ PROFILER INDICATES THAT
MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS INCREASED TO 35 TO 40 KT -- DESPITE MODEL
FORECASTS FOR WEAK /20 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW THOUGH 10/06Z.  WITH STORM
MOVING OUT OF TELLER AND INTO EL PASO COUNTY CO SHOWING SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS -- AND THUS CONFIRMING AN INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AS PER THE PLT PROFILER - IT APPEARS THAT AN INCREASE IN STORM
ORGANIZATION / INTENSITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS --
PARTICULARLY AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AND STORMS MOVE EWD INTO
INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ISOLATED -- AGAIN DUE TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POSSIBLE WW TO COVER THE
ISOLATED HAIL / WIND THREAT WHICH APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING.

..GOSS.. 07/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

42980135 42180120 40050249 38580450 39040520 40860526
42030567 43150314 

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