[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091915 
INZ000-ILZ000-092115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1583
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN IL AND NRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091915Z - 092115Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION
INTENSIFYING ALONG GUST FRONT OVER NERN IL AS IT MOVES INTO NWRN
IND. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AND THUS A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

LATEST VWP DATA FROM CHICAGO AND IR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A MID
LEVEL SPEED MAX EXISTS OVER NRN IL TO THE SOUTH OF AN MCV OVER SRN
WI. RECENT GOES PW DATA INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS INCREASING
NORTH ABOVE SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NRN IND AND
FAR NERN IL. SOMEWHAT ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY OVER THE CHI METRO AREA SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WIND
THREAT. HOWEVER...NEW DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE GUST FRONT/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERSECTION TO THE SOUTH OF
CHICAGO INTO FAR NWRN IND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS CONVECTION
WILL BE ABLE TO TAP MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES FROM
2000-2500 J/KG. DESPITE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL INFLOW IN THIS
AREA...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...  FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG GUST
FRONT AND MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH NRN IND.

..CROSBIE.. 07/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...

40618770 41268861 41648827 41818745 41678614 41088512
40348542 40148602 

WWWW