[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091902 
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-092100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1582
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO...SE WY AND WRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091902Z - 092100Z

STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN CO INTO SE WY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN CO INTO SE WY. DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY OVER SE WY...WRN NEB AND NE CO. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG. AN UPPER RIDGE HAS BEEN BUILDING OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
TODAY WITH RESULTING WEAK MID-UPPER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR. DESPITE
THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...MID LEVEL FLOW OF 20-25 KT REMAINS
SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO SPREAD SLOWLY EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN WY INTO WRN NEB.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD
INTO THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS. INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS. SOME
HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

..DIAL.. 07/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...

39710412 40040510 42240531 42560306 40310326 

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