[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091511
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091510 
OKZ000-091715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN THROUGH CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091510Z - 091715Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP
SWD THROUGH NRN AND INTO CNTRL OK THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW AND WILL LIKELY BE
UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK IN THE 1630Z OUTLOOK.

LATE THIS MORNING A CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR PONCA CITY CONTINUES
MOVING SWD AT AROUND 20 KT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK AND
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY
SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL OK. MORNING RAOB DATA FROM NORMAN SHOWED STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SUGGESTING THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE CAP ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S. MLCAPE FROM 3500 TO 4000 J/KG IS EXPECTED
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VWP DATA STILL SHOW A 30 KT SLY LOW LEVEL
JET...BUT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...20 KT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THIS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 KT NLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE W OF AN MCV
CENTERED OVER EXTREME SW MO SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
PROFILES FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SWD AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES.

..DIAL.. 07/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

36669495 36439687 36569812 35989853 35459814 35249665
35869490 

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