[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 090750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090749 COR
NEZ000-KSZ000-090915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1580
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB AND CNTRL/NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594...595...

VALID 090749Z - 090915Z

CORRECTED FOR REFERENCED CITIES IN THIRD PARAGRAPH

WELL ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS
SERN NEB AND NCNTRL KS AT 40-45 KTS.  NRN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT APPROACHES THE MO RVR NEAR
OMAHA...THOUGH WARM ADVECTION WING IS DEVELOPING EWD INTO SWRN IA. 
PRIND NRN EDGE OF THE LINE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEAKENING AS THE
ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY LESS INSTABILITY THAN WHAT WAS
AVAILABLE FARTHER WEST.

MEANWHILE...STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG SRN EDGE OF GUST
FRONT IN NCNTRL KS.  LAMONT AND HILLSBORO PROFILERS SHOW A STRONG
LLJ OF 40-45 KTS AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUING FEEDING THE TSTMS
WITH PARCELS CONTAINING MUCAPES OF 4000 J/KG.  DESPITE WEAK H5
FLOW...THIS MCS HAS HAD A VERY WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS IT MOVES SEWD
INTO NERN/CNTRL KS.  

IF THE TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER...EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE STORMS ROUGHLY THE MANHATTAN AREA 8-900 UTC...AND PERHAPS TOPEKA
AND EMPORIA /I-35 TURNPIKE CORRIDOR/ BY 900-930 UTC.  

IN WAKE OF THIS MCS...MORE ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
PERIODICALLY AND THOSE MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLD HAIL.

LASTLY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY AS
TSTMS HAVE ESSENTIALLY MOVED WELL INTO WATCH 595.

..RACY.. 07/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

40030031 40009858 40659755 41509754 41459640 40879596
40229561 39039589 38119650 38059855 38169940 39229991 

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