[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 090206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090205 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-090400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1576
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0905 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS / TX AND OK PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 090205Z - 090400Z

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS SWRN
KS...AND INTO THE OK / NRN TX PANHANDLES.  ALTHOUGH A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEARS TO EXIST...WW NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

LOW-LEVEL JET HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WHICH MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH OBSERVED INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS REGION IS ON
THE WRN PERIPHERY OF AXIS OF EXTREME INSTABILITY /4000 TO 5000 J/KG
MEAN-LAYER CAPE/...EVENING RAOBS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ALSO REVEAL
A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CAP ACROSS THIS REGION.

LOW-LEVEL JET / WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH SHOULD
PROPAGATE SWD WITH TIME GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND WEAK STEERING
WINDS ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL / WIND WITH A FEW
STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
GIVEN WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASING CAP.

..GOSS.. 07/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

37580002 37159919 36599883 35879889 35379956 34930100
35870208 36550210 37080153 

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