[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 090359
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090358 
NEZ000-KSZ000-090530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1577
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND S CENTRAL NEB / NRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593...594...

VALID 090358Z - 090530Z

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A BOW / MCS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING SEWD INTO S CENTRAL NEB / TOWARD N CENTRAL KS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE AXIS OF EXTREME INSTABILITY
-- AS HIGH AS 5000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE -- FROM S SCENTRAL NEB SWD
ACROSS CENTRAL KS.  WITHIN THIS SAME REGION...30 KT SLY LOW-LEVEL
JET IS INDICATED...AND NEW ETA RUN INDICATES AN ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION BULLSEYE OVER THIS REGION.  GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND THE
ORGANIZED LINE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED...IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS S CENTRAL NEB AND INTO N CENTRAL KS -- ALONG
WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

STORMS HAVE NEARLY VACATED SERN PORTIONS WW 593 ATTM...AND SHOULD
MOVE ENTIRELY INTO WW 594 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT WW 593 MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO ITS 09/07Z
EXPIRATION.

..GOSS.. 07/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

41459947 41579862 41379696 39479851 39410082 40290150
40680024 

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