[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 082335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082335 
NEZ000-SDZ000-090130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1575
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN SD...NWRN NEB...NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 592...

VALID 082335Z - 090130Z

CONTINUE WW ALONG AND E OF DEVELOPING LINE OF SEVERE TSTMS --
EXTENDING AT 2315Z FROM WRN-MOST CHERRY COUNTY SWWD TO BANNER COUNTY
AND MOVING SEWD 30-40 KT.  SEVERE THREAT IN SD APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY WITH STRONGEST CONVECTIVE FORCING S OF NEB
BORDER.

SUPERCELL ENTERING WRN CHERRY COUNTY NEB APPEARS AS OF 2315Z TO BE
TRANSITIONING TOWARD FORWARD-PROPAGATING HP OR BOW CONFIGURATION. 
AS SUCH THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IN A
SWATH EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH WRN/SRN CHERRY COUNTY...POSSIBLY AS FAR
AS PORTIONS HOOKER/THOMAS COUNTIES AND BEYOND. THIS STORM HAS
PRODUCED BRIEF TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES DIAMETER...MEASURED 46
KT GUST INVOF CDR...AND ESTIMATED GUSTS JUST ABOVE 50 KT IN SHERIDAN
COUNTY...SINCE 21Z.

PRIND THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO EXIT PRESENT WW AREA BY
APPROXIMATELY 1Z...WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH FAVORABLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW AIR MASS.  THEREFORE ANOTHER WW MAY BE NEEDED
WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR PORTIONS NEB E AND/OR SE OF WW 592.  SFC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM BETWEEN VTN-ANW
SWWD ACROSS HOOKER COUNTY THEN SEWD TO NEAR LBF-MHK LINE.  AIR MASS
E OF THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT AS WARM BUT CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST THAN
PRESENT INFLOW ENVIRONMENT OF MCS...WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO
WITHIN 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE
50-150 J/KG CINH...BUT THIS SHOULD BE FORCED AWAY BY STRONG
FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL CONVECTIVE ASCENT.  COMBINING STORM MOTION
WITH LOWEST VWP GATES FROM LBF YIELDS AROUND 50 KT STORM-RELATIVE
INFLOW.

..EDWARDS.. 07/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

41080067 41070394 41970398 41980336 42990254 43910167
43880078 

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