[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 082243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082243 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-082345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1574
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL OK...NWRN AND
N-CENTRAL AR...SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 591...

VALID 082243Z - 082345Z

PER COORDINATION WITH TUL...ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS MENTIONED
BELOW...AND LATEST OVERALL DOWNWARD CONVECTIVE TRENDS WITH
MCS...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AS ACTIVITY MOVES FARTHER
SEWD INTO AR AND EXTREME ERN OK.  THEREFORE...PRIND REMAINDER WW
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES FINE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH GUST FRONT
SURGING WELL AHEAD OF STRONGEST CORES...THEREBY RENDERING EFFECTIVE
INFLOW INTO REMAINING TSTMS AS ELEVATED ATOP COLD POOL.  NEW
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY
BRIEFLY FLARE TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS...GIVEN 4000-5000 J/KG MLCAPE
EVIDENT IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS.  HOWEVER...WITH COLD POOL
OUTRUNNING CONVECTION THAT GENERATED IT...ANY NEW TSTMS LIKELY TO BE
UNDERCUT BY DEEP OUTFLOW...AND WEAK AMBIENT FLOW PROFILES IN
LOW-MIDLEVELS...PROBABILITIES FOR WELL-ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT TO
CONTINUE APPEAR TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW.

..EDWARDS.. 07/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...

35389563 36439563 36469438 36779332 36569330 

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