[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 082049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082049 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-082215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1573
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NE OK...SW MO AND NW AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 591...

VALID 082049Z - 082215Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH LINE OF STORMS ACROSS NERN OK...SW MO AND NW AR.
BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT OF ERN PARTS OF THE LINE...STORMS MAY
BEGIN TO MOVE SE OF WW 591 AND FARTHER INTO NW AR AFTER 22Z. IF
STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD...ANOTHER WW
MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF NW AR.

STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED AND EVOLVED INTO A LINE ALONG LEADING
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNINGS STORMS. AS
OF 2030Z THIS AFTERNOON THE LINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR SPRINGFIELD MO
SWWD TO N OF TULSA. THE ERN PARTS OF THE LINE ARE MOVING SEWD AT 25
TO 30 KT...WHILE THE WRN PORTION IS DEVELOPING SWD AT 15 TO 20 KT.
THE STORMS HAVE BECOME SURFACE BASED AND FORWARD PROPAGATING. STORMS
ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR...AND THE
UNFAVORABLE KINEMATICS MIGHT LIMIT HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS WILL BE ABLE
TO DEVELOP. NEVERTHELESS...THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED ACROSS NERN OK AND NRN AR...WHICH
SUGGESTS STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG
LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

..DIAL.. 07/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

36469552 36629440 37419333 36169308 35509478 35509566 

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