[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 082018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082018 
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-082215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1572
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE AND SW SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 082018Z - 082215Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO THE
EVENING AS THEY MOVE EWD FROM SE WY INTO WRN NEB AND SWRN SD.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. 
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SERN WY WHERE
STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND DEEP MIXING HAS WEAKENED THE CAP. THE DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS IS LIMITING
MLCAPE TO AOB 1000 J/KG OVER SERN WY AND WILL PROMOTE HIGH BASED
CONVECTION. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EAST INTO WRN NEB
AND INTERCEPT SLIGHTLY RICHER MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. A 60 KT MID LEVEL JET ROTATING
THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WY AND EVENTUALLY INTO SD THIS EVENING
WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT HIGH
BASED NATURE OF THE STORMS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT TO PRIMARILY
ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND.

..DIAL.. 07/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

41080287 41340505 43280406 43270259 41760219 

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