[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081929 
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-082100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1571
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA/FAR NERN NC INTO DE/MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081929Z - 082100Z

POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

PLENTIFUL INSOLATION/HUMID AIRMASS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS SE VA PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.
ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE...UNIDIRECTIONAL AMBIENT
WIND FIELDS ARE MARGINAL AS REGION REMAINS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF
STRONGER WLY MID LEVEL FLOW.

NEVERTHELESS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/WIND PROFILES EXIST FOR A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO LIMITING
SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL...RISING UPPER HEIGHTS/ENSUING NVA IN WAKE OF
ERN CANADA SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUGGESTS ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..GUYER.. 07/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...

36757790 37007785 37587737 38707637 38917550 38657505
37307554 36317593 36067642 36077706 36277796 36437806 

WWWW