[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081833 
NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-082030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1570
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/NE PA/NRN NJ INTO VT/MA/CT AND WRN NH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081833Z - 082030Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...BUT A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AIRMASS AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT/SE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 18Z OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS 100MB MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS FAR ERN NY...OWING TO MODEST INSOLATION WITH LOW/MID 80S
TEMPS AND MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS. ALTHOUGH INITIALLY LIMITED BY
CLOUD COVER INVOF WARM FRONT...THIS DESTABILIZATION TREND WILL
GRADUALLY CONTINUE EWD THROUGH VT/MA/CT THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES --
AS EVIDENT IN 12Z BUF/ALB RAOBS -- WITH W/SW MID LEVEL WINDS OF
30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL/LINEAR CLUSTERS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN SEVERE HAZARD. IN
ADDITION...SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS.


ANTICIPATED MARGINAL NATURE OF OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE...HOWEVER TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..GUYER.. 07/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

44827448 44917198 44367200 42967211 41697262 41097369
40687426 40757516 41127569 42077550 43227515 

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