[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081509
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081509 
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-081715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1569
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...NE OK...AND EXTREME SW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081509Z - 081715Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND MICROBURSTS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY
SWD-SSEWD THROUGH SERN KS...NE OK AND POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME SW MO
NEXT 2-3 HOURS. AT THIS TIME...THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR A WW.
HOWEVER...IF STORMS MANAGE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED...THE SEVERE
THREAT WOULD INCREASE. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES ACROSS SERN KS. THE ACTIVITY STILL
APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED...BUT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND CAP
WEAKENS ACROSS SERN KS...SW MO AND NE OK...STORMS MAY BECOME SURFACE
BASED. THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE DEGREE OF PERSISTENCE IS DEPENDENT IN
PART ON WHETHER OR NOT THE STORMS CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL WHICH
WOULD ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWIND PROPAGATION. WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR AN
ORGANIZED WIND/HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS
INCLUDING STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND MICROBURSTS IF STORMS
MANAGE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED.

..DIAL.. 07/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

37149394 36099537 37169696 38129540 38029405 

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