[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081228 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-081500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1568
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...NERN OK...WRN MO...NWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081228Z - 081500Z

A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS/WRN
MO...NERN OK...AND NWRN AR LATER THIS MORNING. STORMS MAY CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO LATER THIS MORNING WHILE DRIFTING
SLOWLY SOUTH.

TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS ERN KS ALONG SURFACE WARM FRONT
AND PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL THETAE AXIS. INITIATION OF THIS ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN A RESULT OF STRONG MOISTURE FLUX ON THE NOSE OF
30-35KT LOW LEVEL JET DIRECTED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. IN ADDITION...
FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ASCENT AND MID LEVEL DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY
FROM SMALL MCV LEFT OVER FROM LAST EVENING/S DEEP CONVECTION. WHILE
CURRENT ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ROOTED AOA 850MB AND WAS PROBABLY
ONLY REALIZING LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR... THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR NEAR SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION GIVEN A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING. GIVEN VERY MOIST
AIRMASS AND LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5
C/KM...STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE. AS
UPDRAFTS ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NEAR THE
FRONTAL ZONE COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG... POSSIBLY DAMAGING...DOWNDRAFTS.

..CARBIN.. 07/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

36189435 37469697 39409691 39689601 38249313 

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