[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 080635
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080634 
SDZ000-NDZ000-080800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1567
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 590...

VALID 080634Z - 080800Z

STRONGLY DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING
EAST ACROSS ERN MT. A NARROW AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY...MLCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 800 J/KG...HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONGLY
FORCED ASCENT FROM ERN MT ACROSS SWRN ND. EXPECT THIS INSTABILITY TO
CONTINUE TO FUEL ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS. A
SMALL MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS CONVECTION AND DEVELOP ESEWD ACROSS
WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF ND AND SD. A NEW WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED IF
THIS APPEARS MORE CERTAIN.

THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE TWO MECHANISMS THAT DRIVE ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 1) THE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
ACROSS MT...AND 2) THE LEADING EDGE OF A NARROW WARM SECTOR ACROSS
NRN SD/SRN ND. AS STORMS MOVE EAST...UPDRAFTS SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY DECOUPLED FROM THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS.
NONETHELESS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WILL FAVOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO ANCHOR OR
BACKBUILD ALONG THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT/LLJ FROM WRN SD INTO SRN
ND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS AND SEVERE
STORM COVERAGE INCREASES...A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

..CARBIN.. 07/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

45870243 46580401 47480340 47570121 46920030 45380057 

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