[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 080121
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080120 
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-080245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0820 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT / WRN ND / NWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588...

VALID 080120Z - 080245Z

LOOSELY-ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN MT / WW 588.  SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND MAY SPREAD E OF WW INTO WRN ND
AND PARTS OF NWRN SD WITH TIME.  NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED...WHILE
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY ERN PORTIONS OF WW 588.

LATEST DATA INDICATES A SLOWLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS ATTM...BUT AXIS OF INSTABILITY REMAINS FROM NERN MT SSEWD
INTO WRN SD.  STRONG CONVERGENCE IS INDICATED ALONG FRONT MOVING EWD
ACROSS ERN MT...WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM. 
ALTHOUGH MAIN SEVERE THREAT HAS BEEN DAMAGING WINDS WITH HIGH-BASED
STORMS...COOLING / STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL JET / WARM ADVECTION OVER THIS REGION SUGGESTS THAT STORMS
WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME...WITH MAIN
SEVERE THREAT TRANSITIONING TOWARD HAIL.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AXIS
REMAINS NARROW / CONFINED TO ERN MT / THE WRN DAKOTAS...A NARROW WW
MAY BE REQUIRED E OF CURRENT WATCH ASSUMING STORMS REMAIN STRONG /
ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

..GOSS.. 07/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

47970625 49010401 49020236 45840218 44300242 45030488
45200624 

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