[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 070811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070810 
ARZ000-OKZ000-071115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 070810Z - 071115Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EWD FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK INTO
ERN OK THROUGH DAYBREAK. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL
AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BUT OVERALL STORM
ORGANIZATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN OK EARLY TODAY. A SUBSYNOPTIC
WAVE HAS FORMED ON THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF LTS. LOW LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE/CONFLUENCE AXIS WAS ANALYZED IN 850MB FLOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM LTS TO
NORTH OF MLC. GIVEN PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ASCENT WITHIN THIS AXIS
POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY EWD MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INITIATE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION
TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...PRC PROFILER DATA
SHOWED RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WITH 25KT 0-6KM
SHEAR. THUS...EXPECT WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORM CHARACTER WITH
A SLOW EWD/ESEWD MOTION. MAGNITUDE OF CAPE WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE MORE
INTENSE UPDRAFTS. REPEAT AND SLOW MOVING STORMS AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH
AROUND 3KM ALSO RAISES THE PROSPECT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

..CARBIN.. 07/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

34469468 34469678 34879721 35289741 35919666 35909456
34979422 

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