[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 060746
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060745 
MOZ000-KSZ000-060945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS AND NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 060745Z - 060945Z

STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD EAST FROM NERN KS
AND INTO NRN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN VERY MOIST AND
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ACROSS THESE AREAS...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE
NEEDED PRIOR TO 09Z.

LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS SMALL SCALE WAVE CYCLONE COINCIDENT WITH
DEEP CONVECTION ON NRN SEGMENT OF THE SQUALL LINE OVER NERN KS. DEEP
BAND OF CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THIS
MESOLOW...TO THE SOUTH OF TOP/MKC AREAS...AND THEN EAST TO STL.
STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING WITHIN THIS FRONTOGENETIC ZONE AS
MOISTURE INFLUX AND ASCENT ON STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ACT TO
OVERCOME WEAK INHIBITION. WHILE REGION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY RESIDES BENEATH RELATIVELY WEAK MIDLEVEL FLOW BETWEEN
CNTRL PLAINS SHORT WAVE AND MIDWEST SHORT WAVE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS AND STORM ORGANIZATION. FURTHERMORE... MAGNITUDE
OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD
SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

..CARBIN.. 07/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

38439072 37619586 39629565 40219205 

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