[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 070656
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070655 
OKZ000-TXZ000-070830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1553
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX AND SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 584...585...

VALID 070655Z - 070830Z

BOW ECHO NOW OVER STONEWALL...FISHER...NOLAN...AND MITCHELL COUNTIES
OF NWRN TX WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 40-45KT WITH
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS. SYSTEM HAS WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN RAPID SEWD
PROPAGATION THROUGH THE SRN PARTS OF WW 585 OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.


FARTHER NORTH...CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS WAS CONCENTRATED ACROSS
PARTS OF SWRN OK TO THE NORTH OF DIFFUSE FRONTAL BAND/LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE AXIS. SO FAR...THIS CONVECTION HAS SHOWN ERRATIC AND SLOW
PROPAGATION WITHIN VEERING WIND PROFILE AND WEAK LOW THROUGH MID
LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
SOME HAIL AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY
COULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED ALONG EDGE OF A DEEPENING COLD
POOL IN A COUPLE HOURS AND PERHAPS SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER.
HOWEVER...THAT TREND IS NOT YET APPARENT IN RADAR LOOPS.

..CARBIN.. 07/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

31779917 31790197 32910101 32980148 33980182 34180237
34620203 34749997 34909924 34879604 32049854 

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