[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061601
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061601 
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-061700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1542
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MO/SRN IL/FAR SWRN IND/WRN KY AND
NERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061601Z - 061700Z

WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS FROM
SERN MO/NERN AR TO SRN IL/SWRN IND/WRN KY...WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.

VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CU/TCU DEVELOPING FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA OF
CONCERN...WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS WEAKENING THE CAP.  THIS
HEATING COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S/ IS RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE UP TO
2000-2500 J/KG/.  STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN
KS/ERN OK ATTM PER WV IMAGERY WITH VAD/WIND PROFILER DATA SHOWING
40-45 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH THIS FEATURE.  INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER
OH VALLEYS...AND SOMEWHAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY ENCOURAGE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. 
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...WHILE
UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS...WITH HAIL
ALSO A THREAT GIVEN MODERATE TO EXPECTED VERY STRONG INSTABILITY.

..PETERS.. 07/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

36579275 38919027 39418805 38508678 36718687 36238985
36079182 

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