[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051708 
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-051815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1519
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL/SWRN IND/NWRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 561...

VALID 051708Z - 051815Z

DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS FAR
SERN IL INTO SWRN IND/NWRN KY. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT
HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN KY...AS THE BOW IS EXPECTED TO EXIT WW
561 BY 1830Z...WITH NEW STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WRN KY IN A
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LARGE BOWING STRUCTURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
INTO SRN IL AT 1645Z...WITH THE STRONGEST PORTION AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL ALONG THE SRN EXTENT.  THIS SRN PORTION HAS TENDED TO
MAINTAIN ITS ESEWD MOVEMENT OF 35 KT...SUPPORTING DAMAGING WINDS. 
AT THIS SPEED...AND WITH ADDITIONAL AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN IND/WRN KY WHERE MLCAPE IS ALREADY
RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG...THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS
FORWARD PROPAGATION.  

ALTHOUGH STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY FARTHER N ACROSS CENTRAL
IL ALONG NRN PORTION OF LARGE BOW...SLOWER EWD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED
TO LIMIT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL.

..PETERS.. 07/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

36878889 37938802 38938812 38978569 37628562 36738600
36708857 

WWWW