[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051412
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051412 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-051515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1518
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0912 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO INTO CENTRAL/SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 560...

VALID 051412Z - 051515Z

DAMAGING BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EAST CENTRAL MO...
INCLUDING ST LOUIS METRO AREA...THROUGH 15Z AS IT MOVES INTO SWRN
IL.  SECOND STRONG BOW ECHO EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD TOWARD SRN IL
THROUGH 16Z.  NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 16Z FOR PORTIONS OF SRN IL
INTO SWRN IND.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW DAMAGING BOW ECHO...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
LINCOLN TO FRANKLIN COUNTIES MO...MOVING ENEWD AT 40-45 KT.  STL VAD
DATA SHOWED WINDS BELOW 1 KM IN THE WAKE OF THE LEADING
BOW...RESPONDING TO UPSTREAM/APPROACHING STRONGER BOW...WITH WINDS
HAVING BECOME ESELY.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THIS STRONGER BOW TO SUSTAIN
SIMILAR INTENSITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STL AREA INTO SWRN IL.

THE LEADING BOW MOVING INTO ST CLAIR COUNTY IL WAS MOVING TO THE SE
AT 30-35 KT.  AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN IL HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...GIVEN THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING THIS
MORNING WITHIN MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION
EXPECTED ACROSS SRN IL PER 12Z ETA SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEWD
MOVEMENT OF LEAD BOW AND ENEWD MOVEMENT OF DAMAGING BOW INTO SRN IL.

..PETERS.. 07/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

38959144 39579119 39748927 39508739 38418707 37988753
37288873 37969008 38039139 

WWWW