[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 052000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052000 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-052100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1521
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA/NERN MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 052000Z - 052100Z

PORTIONS OF SERN IA/NERN MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WW.

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW OVER SWRN IA...JUST W OF DSM...
WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD INTO CENTRAL IL TO THE N OF PIA. 
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW.  AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA OF
CONCERN HAS BEEN SLOW TO DESTABILIZE /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/...
DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS
WITH A POCKET OF WARM 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -8 C/KM.  

HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER UVVS WITH A
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM WRN IA TO ERN
KS...SPREAD EWD OVER SRN IA/NRN MO TO WRN IL.  INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...WHILE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A TORNADO THREAT.

..PETERS.. 07/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

40509391 41839409 41889210 41619021 39869042 39689278 

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