[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061953 
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-062030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1545
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL IL INTO WRN/NRN IND AND
SWRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061953Z - 062030Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL IL...ALONG A ZONE OF CONVERGENCE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR CHICAGO SWWD TO JUST NORTH OF STL. WW WILL BE
ISSUED SOON FOR THIS REGION AND EXTENDING EWD INTO WRN/NRN IND AND
SWRN LOWER MI.

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...NEAR
GRB...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD NEAR CHICAGO TO NRN IL AND
NRN MO.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS NRN IL IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH VIS IMAGERY SHOWING AN AREA OF SURFACE BASED CU. 
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A STORM TRIED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL...A SIGNAL THAT THE CAP
IS WEAKENING.  AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH 40 KT OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS.

..PETERS.. 07/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

38599031 42168843 42068478 38578674 

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