[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 050945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050945 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-051145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1516
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0445 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...SWRN IA...NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 558...

VALID 050945Z - 051145Z

BROKEN ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD INTO SWRN
IA...AND MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MO EARLY TODAY. SMALL CLUSTER OF
INTENSE STORMS NW OF COU APPEARS TO BE ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT
AND ON THE NOSE OF 25-35KT LLJ. ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
WATCH...ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND FASTER WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADVANCING SEVERE SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST FROM
ERN KS AT OVER 40KT. WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE FROM LINN
COUNTY IN ERN KS EAST ACROSS BATES AND HENRY COUNTIES OF WRN MO OVER
THE 1-2 HOURS.

FARTHER NORTH...INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED AND FOCUSED ALONG
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SRN IA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN MERGING WITH THIS FRONT ACROSS ERN NEB AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS THIS PROCESS DEVELOPS EWD
INTO SWRN IA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH E/NEWD
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER KS MAY OVERCOME LACK OF GREATER
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A COUPLE OF HAIL OR WIND EVENTS OVER THE
REMAINING VALID TIME OF THE WATCH.

..CARBIN.. 07/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...

37889416 38849539 39399441 40829553 41509679 43069489
40099156 

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