[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 050723
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050722 
OKZ000-TXZ000-050915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1515
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PNHDL...WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 050722Z - 050915Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TX PNHDL AND WRN OK EARLY TODAY. WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
THESE AREAS SHORTLY.

WV IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL-DEFINED SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS NERN NM. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF SWD MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE MOVED OVER THE NRN TX PNHDL AND MERGED WITH
SW-NE ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH. LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE SHORT
WAVE...COUPLED WITH MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE TROUGH/OUTFLOWS...
SHOULD OVERCOME RELATIVELY HIGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO SUSTAIN
VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND ACTIVITY
SHOULD TAP INTO GREATER INSTABILITY AS IT DEVELOPS EWD TOWARD WRN
OK. THUS...LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING.

..CARBIN.. 07/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

34489872 33989974 33860185 35740166 36589934 35739830 

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