[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 032051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032050 
SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-032245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1486
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD...WRN NEBRASKA...NERN CO...NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 032050Z - 032245Z

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND DEVELOP FROM NEAR RAP SWD INTO
NERN CO.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY.  A WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS.  ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA
OVER WY INTO SD / NWRN NEBRASKA WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE THROUGH EVENING.  SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS CO
AND NW KS WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

LOW LEVEL JET IS RESPONDING TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WIND
FIELDS...WITH GLD VWP AND GDA PROFILER INDICATING SLY FLOW OF 15-20
KTS IN THE LOWEST 2 KM AGL...WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG CO/KS
BORDER.  THUS...UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED DEVELOPING
CLUSTERS OF STORMS FROM SWRN SD INTO NERN CO.

VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 8.0 AND 9.0 C/KM EXIST...THUS
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE ILKLEY. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS STORMS MERGE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
WITH ORGANIZED COLD POOL / OUTFLOW.  FORECAST HODOGRAPHS TAKE STORMS
ESEWD AT 15-20 KTS THIS EVENING AND MODELS INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF
MCS THAT MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT POINTS SE.

..JEWELL.. 07/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

38730124 39290307 40200336 41150373 42520298 43780291
44100164 43309945 38790024 

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