[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 040645
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040645 
KSZ000-MOZ000-040815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1492
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 543...544...

VALID 040645Z - 040815Z

STRONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SPREADING SWD/SEWD ACROSS SCNTRL AND ERN
KS EARLY TODAY AIDED BY MODEST WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND PRESSURE
RISES ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. LIFT ACROSS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN IMPETUS FOR STORM INITIATION WITHIN VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. BY 09Z...BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
FROM SWRN MO WWD ACROSS SRN KS WITH THE BULK OF CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS OUTFLOW...ACROSS SERN KS.
WITH UPDRAFTS ROOTED BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB...MARGINAL EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WILL BE REALIZED IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER RESULTING IN
PRIMARILY ELEVATED STORMS. HOWEVER..DESPITE POOR
ORGANIZATION...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY FEEDING THE POST-OUTFLOW
STORMS WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS...LARGE HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTS.

..CARBIN.. 07/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

38069531 38210130 39340139 39079757 40009754 39959520 

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