[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031944 
INZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-032145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1485
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL/IND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 540...

VALID 031944Z - 032145Z

CONTINUE WW.

PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND NOW APPEARS TO BE THAT WHICH EXTENDS WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF CHICAGO THROUGH THE CHAMPAIGN AREA...BEFORE CURVING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD BOWLING GREEN KY. THIS IS IN ZONE OF STRONGER
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CHICAGO/INDIANAPOLIS AND LOUISVILLE AREAS
BY 03/23-04/00Z.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED TO AROUND
90F IN NARROW CORRIDOR NORTHEAST OF LOUISVILLE INTO THE GRISSOM AFB
AREA OF NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WHICH INSTABILITY IS NOW
MAXIMIZED WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE TO 2000 J/KG.  AS FORCING
OVERSPREADS THIS AXIS...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF UPDRAFTS APPEARS
LIKELY.  RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS SHOULD INCREASE NEAR HEAVIER
RAIN CORES NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO CONTINUES AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE
INDIANA/ILLINOIS BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 07/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...

41618869 42028852 42148800 42198735 41688632 41048576
40168547 38918529 38188573 38168626 38668687 39718718
40788760 41348859 

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